Potomac Primary Analysis

Following the Super Tuesday elections, the Democrats had eight primary elections and the Republicans had six. The headline in many of Wednesday’s papers will be something to the effect of the media praising the Obama campaign for winning all of the primaries in Louisiana, Nebraska, Washington, and the U.S. Virgin Islands on Saturday the 9th. He also won the Maine caucus the next day on Sunday February 10th and all of the “Chesapeake Primary” states Maryland, Virginia, and the District of Columbia. This undoubtedly is a large boost in delegates to the Obama campaign and makes him the front runner for the Democratic nomination. To be nominated the democratic candidate needs 2025 delegates. Right now Hilary Clinton has 1220 delegates compared to Obama’s 1275. This may seem like a futile differentiation, but this is the first time in the democratic race that Obama is ahead in the delegate count. Obama’s upswing in the polls can be attributed to his widespread upbeat message espousing hope. Hilary Clinton berated Obama for his lack of policy discussion and his over use of rhetorical flourishes. Clinton’s campaign has seen some shake-ups with Clinton’s campaign manager, Patti Solis Doyle, and deputy campaign manager, Mike Henry, resigning after the election results. What will be interesting to see is how Clinton reshapes her message going into the delegate rich primaries of Texas and Ohio on March 4th. A good indicator will be the Wisconsin open primary on February 19 where 3% of the democratic delegates will be up for grabs. On the Republican side, John McCain has done increasingly well primarily due to the unexpected drop out announcement by former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. McCain has won the state of Washington over the weekend and on Tuesday swept the “Chesapeake Primary” states. The other contender, former Governor of Arkansas, Mike Huckabee, narrowly won the state of Louisiana (as I predicted) and also won Kansas despite McCain endorsements from former Kansas Senator and Presidential candidate, Bob Dole, and current Senator Sam Brownback. McCain has 843 of the needed 1191 delegates while Huckabee is mathematically out of the race with only 242 delegates. Two things can be learned from the Republican race. I predicted Kansas would go to McCain because of his heavy hitter endorsements. Huckabee narrowly won. This proves endorsements don’t mean much to voters, policy and character do. With Mitt Romney pledging to fight to the end on Tuesday and then dropping out on Thursday that proves that anything can happen in political races despite what pundits, and in this case even candidates, say. I predict that John McCain will win Wisconsin on February 19th and Ohio on March 4th. I will remain staunch in my prediction that Mike Huckabee will win Texas on March 4th and Mississippi on March 11th. Regardless of the primaries, I predict Mike Huckabee will be in the race for the long haul. However, I will go back on my prediction of last week that the Republican nominee will be decided last. In light of Mitt Romney’s abdication, and the delegate count being so close in the Democratic primaries, it seems clear that the Democratic nominee that will be the last chosen. To the Obama fans, you have momentum he must capitalize on it. To the Clinton supporters, you are not out of the race. You still have two out of every three super delegates leaning your way, the nomination may come down to how they vote. The Clinton’s are resourceful and I predict she will win the Texas primaries, putting her right back in the race. Either way, the Democratic contest will be the dictionary definition of a ‘political horse race’.